Analysis of the Asian financial markets of the day February 1, 2012
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Analysis of the Asian financial markets of the day February 1, 2012 – Investment – Day Trading
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Asian financial markets back again to the losses after the day on Tuesday with gentle climbs. Investors continue to show a passive waiting for changes in the global macroeconomic situation and in particular expected economic data from Europe and the United States indicate that not only better than expected, but they are much better than expected.
On Tuesday, enough with the agreement of the European Union on the deficit and the recovery of U.S. markets by the end of the trading day to go smoothly, but today, despite having known PMI data of the major Asian economies with a score mixed. This has not been enough to overshadow the bad economic data from the United States where consumer confidence fell three points to 61.1 after two months of increases in the indicator.
The average loss of the Asian financial markets were -0.3%, noted the drop in the Shanghai Composite -1.07% offsetting the rise the previous day. The ASX continued their climb this week loss of -0.87% and lowering one’s Hang Seng closed 0.28% down plan.
On the side of the end profits were flat, the Kospi closed with a rise of 0.18% and the Nikkei ended up keeping the weekly online trading with gains of 0.08% minimum as the Taiex.
In the day today we have to know the manufacturing PMI data that show a mixed situation in Asia. While China and India PMI shows improvement and expansion of the manufacturing sector in Korea and Taiwan, noting the data reduces the contraction of manufacturing.
In the case of China the forecast was for a 49.5 data showing a contraction in manufacturing, the survey shows a rise to 50.5 from 50.3. This increase may be due to two elements der, the first of this is that the official PMI survey are as fundamental bases of large Chinese companies are seeing at the moment less affected by the global crisis and the second is the increase in domestic demand offset losses in other subsectors of the survey. The latter factor could be due to seasonal holiday for Chinese New Year and not a real element in time.
On the other hand, the HSBC survey shows the opposite of the official survey and shows a stable situation of PMI, increasing slightly to 48.8 from 48.7 the previous month. In both surveys there was a fall in exports due to the crisis of European sovereign debt, but also provides us with the subscript of inflation in a stable position.
The conclusion is that China HSBC PMI continuing a process of economic contraction for the drastic decline in exports to countries affected by the sovereign debt crisis and domestic demand remains weak and should increase their weight in China’s economy.
Another fact that confirms the continuation of the fall of China’s economy is the decline in new housing prices by 0.18%. This decrease in price is partly the result of actions taken by the central government in order to reduce speculation and prevent a collapse of credit default.
Although the Chinese central government policy seems adequate to cool the housing sector and inflation, this policy has two problems. The first is to reduce local government revenues from the sale of land. This reduction in liquidity could lead to a dangerous situation by increasing the number of bad loans and do not have sufficient liquidity to minimize the impact of default.
Second, this tension builders are seeing a reduction in liquidity in the near future can make or break many of these companies.
Changing the country is worth noting that South Korea has announced that for the first time in the last two years the trade balance has been negative. This trade deficit is caused by a fall in exports by 6.6% and imports increased 3.6%.
This fact together with the PMI shows the weak growth of Korea in the last quarter slowed to 0.4% over the same quarter of 2010.
With regard to PMI, but rebounded to 49.2 from 46.4, continues to move below 50 would indicate an expansive change.India is another country in Asia that we have known her and if PMI rose to 57.5 the highest in the last eight months. In December, the PMI was 54.2.
While India maintains high growth, has other problems that can contain this expansive movement. First, the Indian government accumulates more and a higher deficit with a strong currency and a market where liquidity is abundant. Do not forget that excessive borrowing by European countries has led to the current phase of the crisis of 2008.
Another element to consider in the case of India is the progressive increase in the trade deficit where exports grew only 6.7 &% while imports increased by 19.8%, which indicates that domestic demand is weak and could not absorb the effects of a drastic decline in exports.
Finally try the case in Australia which grew 1.4 to 51.6 PMI. Although this indicator S shows an expansion of the Australian economy this is because the sub-sector exports and more specifically of mining. While the analysts day on Tuesday maintained that the Australian mining remain the engine of growth regardless of the situation in China, the importer of Australian ore. I hold a different point of view, I think China and Australia are closely linked and falling housing prices in China and real estate and cools, Australian exports will be affected. In this fundamental element must be added the strong Australian dollar.
On the positive side ‘say that the new legislation restricting India concerning mineral exports have favored the Australian market fill that gap. Also of note is that the food and beverage subsector has grown to support the rise of PMI.Finally note the decline in home sales in Australia, with a fall of 4.9% and the drop in prices of 1%.
About the Author
I am moved by the passion for financial markets and everything around them.Fundamental analysis Basic Writing.
http://randomthingsthatcometomyhead.blogspot.com/
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